FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 Midterm House Model now gives Democratic challenger Tom Malinowski a 62% chance of defeating 10-year Republican incumbent Leonard Lance in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District midterm election.
“Seventh district voters understand that we are not living in typical times and are not willing to risk sending a typical politician back to Congress,” said Malinowski Communications Director Benji Schwartz. “Lance has never had a competitive challenge in his nearly 30 years of seeking public office, and it shows in his amateur and childish campaign of gross distortions and outright lies. Voters are looking for more from their Congressman than self-serving partisan games. That’s why they back Tom.”
“The proof is in the incredible enthusiasm from voters that continues to fuel our campaign’s momentum. We’re up two in the last poll in a district held by Republicans for almost half a century, we’ve outraised Lance by considerable margins every quarter without the support of corporate PAC money, and we’ve had an aggressive on-the-ground presence all summer with 866 unique volunteers,” said Malinowski Campaign Manager Colston Reid. “It’s no wonder Paul Ryan is scared enough to drop over half a million dollars in smear ads on Tom in August. He’s afraid of losing one of the most reliable votes for his extremist agenda.”
FiveThirtyEight’s probabilistic models are based on polls of the district, demographics, election results in comparable districts, fundraising numbers, and past election results. The website is one of the most accurate predictors of electoral results in modern campaigns.